Fear

You know folks: I fear a lot of things.  But lately, appraising the economic fortunes of Connecticut, of UNH, I feel like the guy in the Munch painting. 

Let’s mosaically analyze this thing; here are the pieces.

1.     Here is the graph that Levanon and Paterra posted in their blog at the Conference Board.  Their focus was on the size of the labor force (18-64 year olds).  They warned, pointing to Census demographic data, of a marked decline in the growth of this (18-64) group over the next 15 years, resulting in a labor-shortages.  They drill down a little bit into the components and reveal that it is the gap between the number of people aged 17 the number of people aged 64 that is declining, and that it is declining dramatically.  But this is exactly the pool from which we draw our students, graduates and undergraduates.  It appears that we – UNH - will encounter more intense competition as schools fight to attract students from a shrinking pool.

2.     The state budget put forth last week by Hartford increase business taxes in the state by approximately $700 million over the next two years.  The unitary tax proposal and the increase on data-processing services (from 1% to 3%) were singled out as especially burdensome.  In fact, the tax proposals are sufficiently threatening to Connecticut business that it elicited statements from UTC, GE, Travelers, AETNA and Boehringer Ingelheim – among others - in opposition to the increases.  Several went further, threatening to look for a way out of Connecticut.  Again, the economic impacts of any of these business departing are scary on their own; but a good chunk of our current students as well as our potential students come from these companies.  But not if they go; if they go – so go the education subsidies; so go the students. 

3.     Indeed, the increased tax on data-processing services cannot seem more idiotic, making the state less appealing for a sizable portion of the jobs promised by the anticipated growth in data analytics services.  Tech friendly we are not!  We train them – but where are the jobs???

4.     Hospitals were also singled out for an especially egregious hit in the new budget.  Here is Carstensen, in a Connecticut Post piece, pointing out the consequences of that hit.  Cause hospitals cannot up and leave they have to cut back; and among the things they cut back on is education subsidies.  Again, our programs are chockfull of hospital folk; which may disappear as a result – or certainly dwindle.

5.     I’ve noted before the relentless outmigration of people pouring out of the state. See here for the fate of the yutes and a note on the United Van Lines moving report.  Here is a nice interactive graph from Governing.com so you can check Census data yourself.

Ok add ’em up (1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5); it ain’t rocket science.  Welcome to world of Munch.